Slow Money: Stock Market Update 04/15/24
Navigating the Markets for Beginner Traders and Investors
Umm, World War 3!?! Here’s what’s coming up this week to pay attention to:
First and foremost. Any press conference or public statement from the White House in regards to what involvement the US will have in the escalating international conflict.
Interesting all of these domestic and international conflicts are happening during an election year.
As for economic data, pretty slow week in terms of the heavy hitters.
Monday April 15 2024
08:30 AM US Retail Sales MoM
Thursday we have existing home sales.
But it’s my opinion that most people will be more attentive to news than to data this week.
Let’s look at how the charts line up.
Here’s that same trade I mentioned last week (large image = current, small image = last week). Nice little win on the USDJPY. Broke out of that consolidation to the upside. Currently long USD against the EUR and GBP.
"Wide diversification is only required when investors do not understand what they are doing." — Warren Buffett
A Look at the charts: A Technical Basis
The Broader Market | S&P 500
So, if you remember a few posts again I mentioned that I believed the Bitcoin halving would be the Black Swan to bring price in to match the negative divergence we’ve been seeing in the indicators.
I was wrong. It’s WAY worse (potentially). The hope is that the international landscape does not change for the worse, dragging us in. But if it does, there will certainly be a lot of trading opportunities as volatility increases.
Tell me what you think.
This is a 3 year Weekly chart of the S&P 500 index (SPY)
Red candles with some girth to them now
MACD - Signs of weakness
RSI - 1st cross out of overbought
Price levels - Solid support at 500 level
This is a 1 year Daily chart of the S&P 500 index (SPY)
MACD - Price catching up to negative divergence
RSI - Price catching up to negative divergence
Price levels - seeing a slope downward, not a trend yet. At 50 SMA support
This is a 1 year Daily chart of the Dollar index ($DXY)
MACD - Strong
RSI - Approaching overbought
Price levels - Strong bullish candles
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Long-Term Holdings
This Month’s Long-term Stock Pick
Cash
- just having money in my account, ready to buy stocks when prices in stocks retreat.
Best case scenario, the market crashes/corrects and a bunch of stuff gets cheaper.
Worst case scenario, market goes higher and I keep storing cash while the money already invested goes higher with the market.
That’s the best part about having good stocks. Either way, you win.
Things I’d like to grab if there’s a drop? AT&T ($T), 3M ($MMM), DISNEY ($DIS), BLOCK INC ($SQ)
If I didn’t have a long term and I was just starting? ALIBABA ($BABA), NEWELL BRANDS ($NWL)
**This decision from last week to have cash looks like the right idea after all**
Where My Money Is Currently
My Current Long-Term Holdings: MMM 0.00%↑ WBA 0.00%↑ PFE 0.00%↑ T 0.00%↑ KO 0.00%↑ O 0.00%↑ SBUX 0.00%↑ SQ 0.00%↑ AAPL 0.00%↑ NWL 0.00%↑ BABA 0.00%↑
My Son’s Long-Term Holdings: DIS 0.00%↑ RBLX 0.00%↑ PFE 0.00%↑ AGNC 0.00%↑
My Daughter’s Long-Term Holdings: DIS 0.00%↑ SNAP 0.00%↑ AGNC 0.00%↑ PFE 0.00%↑
Disclaimer. Must Read.
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“This newsletter and all related Slow Money content is not investing advice. Everything you are about to read is merely the opinion of the writer. Please seek the counsel of a financial advisor prior to making any investment decisions. Though the stock market does present many opportunities to make money, there are an infinite number of ways to lose all or more than your original investment. That being said. Don’t invest or trade in any security mentioned in this publication or its related content.”