Slow Money: Stock Market Update 04/01/24
Navigating the Markets for Beginner Traders and Investors
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If there is one common theme to the vast range of the world’s financial crises, it is that excessive debt accumulation, whether by the government, banks, corporations, or consumers, often poses greater systemic risks than it seems during a boom." — Carmen Reinhart
Here’s what’s coming up this week to pay attention to:
Wednesday April 03 2024
11:10 AM US Fed Chair Powell Speech
Friday April 05 2024
07:30 AM US Non Farm Payrolls
07:30 AM US Unemployment Rate
Look at the charts: A Technical Basis
The Broader Market | S&P 500
New ATH (all-time highs) again for the S&P. It didn’t hold but investors seem to still be relatively optimistic. The move appears to be led by safety stocks (utilities, financials, energy) and less by growth. Strangely enough, small caps also helped lead the way.
If you want to know how I came to that conclusion, you can see a sector by sector comparison here at stockcharts.com.
This is a 3 year Weekly chart of the S&P 500 index (SPY)
Up, can’t deny it. But that overbought RSI at the top is a warning. There’s no way to time it, but this overbought condition (if you look to the left) resembles what we saw Q1 2020. We can go even more into overbought, like end of 2017 into 2018.
But eventually, price corrects. (I think that Bitcoin halving is going to be it. Tinfoil)
MACD - Signal and MACD line continue higher
RSI - Overbought, still moving with price
Price levels - slowing, but still positive
This is a 1 year Daily chart of the S&P 500 index (SPY)
MACD - Negative divergence. Not supporting higher prices
RSI - Negative divergence.
Price levels - 5 of the last 6 days have been negative or flat. Still was able to hit an ATH, just barely.
This is a 1 year Daily chart of the Dollar index ($DXY)
MACD - Crossed green, pushing above zero line
RSI - Trending upwards
Price levels - Pushed right through upper price range. 8sma has crossed above 20sma.
FIND A WAY TO
PUT YOUR MONEY TO WORK
Long-Term Holdings
This Month’s Long-term Stock Pick
Cash
- just having money in my account, ready to buy stocks when prices in stocks retreat.
Best case scenario, the market crashes/corrects and a bunch of stuff gets cheaper.
Worst case scenario, market goes higher and I keep storing cash while the money already invested goes higher with the market.
That’s the best part about having good stocks. Either way, you win.
Things I’d like to grab if there’s a drop? AT&T ($T), 3M ($MMM), DISNEY ($DIS), BLOCK INC ($SQ)
If I didn’t have a long term and I was just starting? ALIBABA ($BABA), NEWELL BRANDS ($NWL)
Where My Money Is Currently
My Current Long-Term Holdings: MMM 0.00%↑ WBA 0.00%↑ PFE 0.00%↑ T 0.00%↑ KO 0.00%↑ O 0.00%↑ SBUX 0.00%↑ SQ 0.00%↑ AAPL 0.00%↑ NWL 0.00%↑ BABA 0.00%↑
My Son’s Long-Term Holdings: DIS 0.00%↑ RBLX 0.00%↑ PFE 0.00%↑ AGNC 0.00%↑
My Daughter’s Long-Term Holdings: DIS 0.00%↑ SNAP 0.00%↑ AGNC 0.00%↑ PFE 0.00%↑
Disclaimer. Must Read.
Please read 👇
“This newsletter and all related Slow Money content is not investing advice. Everything you are about to read is merely the opinion of the writer. Please seek the counsel of a financial advisor prior to making any investment decisions. Though the stock market does present many opportunities to make money, there are an infinite number of ways to lose all or more than your original investment. That being said. Don’t invest or trade in any security mentioned in this publication or its related content.”