Slow Money: Stock Market Update 03/18/24
Navigating the Markets for Beginner Traders and Investors
"With a good perspective on history, we can have a better understanding of the past and present, and thus a clear vision of the future." — Carlos Slim Helu
Here’s what’s coming up this week to pay attention to:
Wed -
1:00 PM US Fed Interest Rate Decision
FOMC Economic Projections
Fed Press Conference
Tinfoil: Bitcoin Will Crash The Stock Market
There is ZERO basis for this. My feeling is that when all the funds have money invested in Bitcoin and various ETFs, there’s more risk for the general market.
Yes, retail really believes in Bitcoin and I’m sure there’s some truth to the decentralization and blockchain and all that other stuff. (I’m no expert, clearly)
But it could be anything. I’m just seeing how high the market is going and thinking of what Black Swan could be out there to cause a break. There’s 2 wars happening and an incoming Presidential election.
Purely speculation. I’m not making any bets on a market fall or a Bitcoin fall. In fact, if Bitcoin comes low enough, I might get in on the ride back up if there is one.
Look at the charts: A Technical Basis
The Broader Market | S&P 500
If you read this newsletter all the way through, you would have seen that I added to my longterm portfolio like I said I would.
I’ll continue to add to issues that are underpriced. My new course will detail my idea of underpriced.
However, I am going to maintain a decent cash balance to buy stock if there’s a crash.
Technicals look sound, some weakness showing but could be shot either way after this Fed meeting.
I’ve added a new chart of copper ($HG). Here’s why: “Doctor Copper is insider lingo used in the commodities markets to explain price trends in copper's ability to predict the overall health of an economy. This is due to copper being a fundamental raw material used as inputs in many industries and products.”
This is a 3 year Weekly chart of the S&P 500 index (SPY)
Another week of weakness last week. Still an even fight between bulls and bears. However, those candles would indicate more new bears showing up to the fight. Still, trend is up.
MACD - Histograms showing weakness, still strong
RSI - Overbought, appears to be turning
Price levels - Below 510 now.
This is a 1 year Daily chart of the S&P 500 index (SPY)
MACD - Flat. Histogram red
RSI - Falling towards 50 midline
Price levels - Gap down below the arbitrary line I drew connecting previous lows.
This is a 1 year Daily chart of the Dollar index ($DXY)
MACD - Appears to be turning. Still below par
RSI - Right at the 50 line, attempting to cross
Price levels - Back inside the range I drew back to January of 2023. Attempting to retest the upper resistance on strong momentum.
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Long-Term Holdings
This Month’s Long-term Stock Pick
Pfizer PFE 0.00%↑ Price originally: $26.59 Current Price: $27.94 (Up 5.4%)
Might be the government’s go-to company for vaccines. What they do is wrong, unequivocally, but their position economically is beneficial for its investors. Pfizer is the world's biggest pharmaceutical company in terms of revenue at the moment.
Wrestle with your conscience and make a decision that’s comfortable for you.
BUSINESS SUMMARY (source: TdAmeritrade)
Pfizer Inc. is a research-based global biopharmaceutical company. The Company is engaged in the discovery, development, manufacture, marketing, sale and distribution of biopharmaceutical products worldwide. Its Biopharma segment is engaged in the science-based biopharmaceutical business. Its Biopharma segment includes the Pfizer Oncology Division, the Pfizer U.S. Commercial Division, and the Pfizer International Commercial Division. Its product categories include oncology, primary care and specialty care. Its Oncology products include Ibrance, Xtandi, Inlyta, Bosulif, Lorbrena, Braftovi, Mektovi, Padcev, Adcetris, Talzenna, Tukysa, Elrexfio and Tivdak. Its primary care products include Eliquis, Nurtec ODT/Vydura, Comirnaty, the Prevnar family, Abrysvo, FSME/IMMUN-TicoVac, Paxlovid and Lucira by Pfizer. Its specialty care products include Xeljanz, Enbrel (outside the U.S. and Canada), Inflectra, Cibinqo, Litfulo, Vyndaqel family, Genotropin, Sulperazon, Zavicefta, Medrol and Panzyga.
Where My Money Is
My Current Swing Trade Positions: None
My Current Long-Term Holdings: MMM 0.00%↑ WBA 0.00%↑ PFE 0.00%↑ T 0.00%↑ KO 0.00%↑ O 0.00%↑ SBUX 0.00%↑ SQ 0.00%↑ AAPL 0.00%↑ NWL 0.00%↑ BABA 0.00%↑
My Son’s Long-Term Holdings: DIS 0.00%↑ RBLX 0.00%↑ PFE 0.00%↑ AGNC 0.00%↑
My Daughter’s Long-Term Holdings: DIS 0.00%↑ SNAP 0.00%↑ AGNC 0.00%↑ PFE 0.00%↑
Disclaimer. Must Read.
Please read 👇
“This newsletter and all related Market Adventures content is not investing advice. Everything you are about to read is merely the opinion of the writer. Please seek the counsel of a financial advisor prior to making any investment decisions. Though the stock market does present many opportunities to make money, there are an infinite number of ways to lose all or more than your original investment. That being said. Don’t invest or trade in any security mentioned in this publication or its related content.”