“The intelligent investor is a realist who sells to optimists and buys from pessimists”
- Benjamin Graham
Started to read Benjamin Graham’s “The Intelligent Investor” on Saturday and I’m absolutely loving it. To be honest, I stopped reading “Aftershock” because, in my opinion, it’s just a poorly written book (painfully boring).
Graham’s book has been on my list of books to read for years and is among the top books recommended for investors. I recommend you all check it out.
Here’s what’s coming up this week to pay attention to:
Wed -
02:00 PM US FOMC Minutes
Thurs -
5:00 AM
EA Inflation Rate YoY Final
EA Core Inflation Rate YoY Final
EA CPI Final
EA Inflation Rate MoM Final JAN
7:30 AM EA ECB Monetary Policy Meeting Accounts
10:00 AM US Existing Home Sales
Below you’ll find market information, education, and opinions. If you bought the stock market 101 course, this is where you put that information to work. Must read disclaimer at the end of this publication.
FedWatch Tool
Used to determine the probabilities of a Fed rate move at upcoming FOMC meetings.
Assumptions:
The probability of a rate hike (or conversely, a rate cut) is calculated by adding the probabilities of all target rate levels above (or below) the current target rate.
Probabilities of possible Fed Funds target rates are based on Fed Funds futures contract prices, assuming that rate hikes/cuts are uniformly sized in increments of 25bps (0.25%), and that the Effective Fed Funds Rate (EFFR) will react proportionally to the size of the hike/cut.
Still a 30% chance of a May cut, now that March is off the table. Fed minutes this week recapping the last meeting.
HUGE EARNINGS WEEK
A Technical Look
The Broader Market | S&P 500
Over 500….GOLLY! Despite recent inflation data above forecasts and March rate cuts almost certainly removed from all possibility, investors pushed stocks further and further.
A Summary of the charts below:
The charts speak for themselves. Here’s something not on the chart and is strictly opinion. Super tinfoil hat conspiracy….something major in the world or just locally here in the US is going to happen this month or the beginning of next month.
The corresponding drop will be blamed on the event, allowing the technicals to play out.
Nothing much to do right now but speculate on theories, just don’t speculate with your money. Be patient, let me know what you think is going to happen next.
This is a 3 year Weekly chart of the S&P 500 index (SPY)
Strong bullish candles since October of last year. Absolutely incredible. Only 2nd red candle week in months.
MACD - Strong bullish
RSI - Overbought
Price levels - Over 500. Golly!
This is a 1 year Daily chart of the S&P 500 index (SPY)
Technicals can’t stop price action. But these may indicate bears might start fighting back soon. Still, bulls fight off anything the bears are throwing. So patience. Let the winner emerge. Right now, Bulls are willing to buy higher and that’s hard to ignore.
MACD - Flat. not supporting price rise, but unable to halt it.
RSI - Negative divergence. Not supporting price rise.
This is a 1 year Daily chart of the Dollar index ($DXY)
Breakout attempted. Still above range but 105 rejected.
Middle band (dark green) near-term support if price to attempt another breakout.
MACD - Weakening histograms. Above zero line, no cross
RSI - Above 50 line which is bullish
FIND A WAY TO
PUT YOUR MONEY TO WORK
Long-Term Holdings
This Month’s Long-term Stock Pick
Block Inc SQ 0.00%↑ Current Price: $66.88 (down 3.2% since feature)
This is in line with philosophy that you should own what you use. Cashapp is an awesome app, in my opinion. So many businesses use Square, particularly smaller businesses.
My personal connection comes whenever I deal with young students/athletes in my line of work. They all have cashapp and do a lot of their smaller transactions on there. Their parents send them money directly to their cashapps for whatever they need. Food trucks, something my family likes to do whenever we get a chance, all take cashapp as well as our hair stylists.
I have a small portfolio of stocks on there as well. Super easy to buy and sell. Dividend push notifications are my favorite!
Anyways, not that I’ve sold you here, I enjoy the app and see a deep value in a finance app that appeals to younger consumers and small businesses.
BUSINESS SUMMARY (source: TdAmeritrade)
Block, Inc. is focused on creating ecosystems for distinct customer audiences. The Company operates through two segments: Square and Cash App. The Square segment enables businesses (sellers) to accept card payments, which provides products and services to help its sellers start, run, and grow their businesses. It combines software, hardware, and financial services to create products and services that are self-serve. The Cash App segment provides an ecosystem of financial products and services to help consumers manage their money. It provides an ecosystem of financial services focused on helping consumers make their money go further by storing, sending, receiving, spending, or investing their money with Cash App. The Company's TIDAL is a global platform for musicians and their fans that uses content, experiences, and features to bring fans closer to artists. Its bitcoin ecosystem includes Spiral, an independent team focused on contributing to bitcoin's open-source work
Where My Money Is
My Current Swing Trade Positions: None
My Current Long-Term Holdings: MMM 0.00%↑ WBA 0.00%↑ PFE 0.00%↑ T 0.00%↑ KO 0.00%↑ O 0.00%↑ SBUX 0.00%↑ SQ 0.00%↑ AAPL 0.00%↑ (added to PFE)
My Son’s Long-Term Holdings: DIS 0.00%↑ RBLX 0.00%↑ O 0.00%↑ PFE 0.00%↑ (added to PFE)
My Daughter’s Long-Term Holdings: DIS 0.00%↑ SNAP 0.00%↑ AGNC 0.00%↑ PFE 0.00%↑ (added to PFE)
Disclaimer. Must Read.
Please read 👇
“This newsletter and all related Market Adventures content is not investing advice. Everything you are about to read is merely the opinion of the writer. Please seek the counsel of a financial advisor prior to making any investment decisions. Though the stock market does present many opportunities to make money, there are an infinite number of ways to lose all or more than your original investment. That being said. Don’t invest or trade in any security mentioned in this publication or its related content.”